Invisibly

Women and Younger Voters May Decide if Gavin Newsom Remains in Office

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49% say they will vote to recall Gavin Newsom.

A twice-elected former San Francisco mayor with telegenic looks and a long list of affluent and influential friends, Gavin Newsom was able to take the top seat in California by the largest margin in U.S. history back in 2019.  But now after just over two years as California’s governor, he is facing another historic moment—becoming the second governor ever to face a recall election. Newsom is facing an intense backlash propelled by growing frustrations over his response to COVID-19, and the Republican-led drive has now secured enough voter signatures to officially qualify the measure on the ballot. Invisibly used it’s Realtime Research tool to poll 1506 Californians to find out if they think Governor Newsom should be ousted from the governor’s seat.



Highlights


  1. 49% say they will vote to recall Gavin Newsom.
  2. 54% thought the Gavin Newsom recall election would make the ballot.
  3. Men report they are 12% more likely than women to recall Newsom.
  4. 47% of Millennials said they would vote to keep Newsom in office.
  5. 35% identified as Democrat, 25% Republican, 26% Independent and 14% other.
  6. 83% who identified as Republican, 55% of Independents and 60% of others thought the recall election would make the ballot compared to just 32% of Democrats.

Results

When asked whether they think the Gavin Newsom recall election will make the ballot, 54.4% accurately predicted it would.  Of those respondents, 62.3% identified as male, 44.6% identified as female, and 53.3% identified as non-binary. A majority of respondents in each age group, with the exception of those  25-40, said they would vote to remove Gavin Newsom from office. Including 56% of those under 18, 51% of those 18-24, 55% of those 41-54 and 50% of those 55+.

If there is a recall election for Gavin Newsom, 48.7% of respondents said they would vote for him to be removed from office compared to 44.5% of respondents who said they would vote to keep him in office and 6.8% of respondents said that they were undecided.

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If there is a recall election for Gavin Newsom, 55% of respondents who identified as male said they would vote to remove him from office while 52% of respondents who identified as female said they would vote to keep him in office. Of respondents who identified as Non-binary, 49% said they would vote to have him removed from office, 29% would vote to keep him in office and 22% were undecided.

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Over 54% of respondents said the recall election would make it to the ballot compared to 21.5% who said it would not.

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62.3% of respondents who identified as male, 44.6% of respondents who identified as female and 53.3% of respondents who identified as non-binary,  said that they think the recall election will make the ballot.

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The majority of respondents were aged 55+ (68%), followed by 18% in the 41-54 group, 9% in the 25-40 category, 3% in the 18-24 category and just 2% who were under 18.

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A majority of respondents in each age group, with the exception of those  25-40, said they would vote to remove Gavin Newsom from office. Including 56% of those under 18, 51% of those 18-24, 55% of those 41-54 and 50% of those 55+. Of those 25-40, 44% said they would vote to remove him from office, 47% said they would vote to keep him in office and 8% were undecided.

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35% of respondents identified as Democrat, 25% as Republican, 26% as Independent and 14% as other.

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56.5% of respondents identified as male, 39.1% female and 4.4% non-binary.

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The majority of respondents in each age group identified as male. The non-binary gender category had the least respondents, with the majority of them (24%) in the under 18 category.

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Generally a strong majority of Democrats would vote to keep Gavin Newsom in office and a strong majority of Republicans would vote to have him removed from office. In a recall election for Gavin Newsom, 82.75% of respondents who identified as Democrat said they would vote to keep him in office while 90.33% of respondents who identified as Republican said they would vote to remove him from office. INV-PR survey-Gavin-9 83% of respondents who identified as Republican, 55% of Independents and 60% of respondents who identified as “other” think the recall election will make the ballot compared to 32% of Democrats. INV-PR survey-Gavin-10 The majority of respondents across all political affiliations except Democrat were men. In the Democrat group, 49% identified as male, with another 49% identifying as female and just one percent of Democrats who identified as non-binary. INV-PR survey-Gavin-2

The Process

From April 5th – April 15th, 2021, Invisibly questioned 1506 Californians about their thoughts on Governor Newsom’s potential recall. Invisibly used their Realtime Research polling tool to learn how Californians feel about a potential election recall. We included questions about age and gender to see how this may have factored into the responses.

We Asked

  1. If there is a recall election for Gavin Newson, what will you vote?
  2. Do you think this recall election will make it to the ballot
  3. What is your Age?
  4. What is your Political Affiliation?
  5. What is your Gender?
Gavin Newsom California elections

Discussion

Not surprisingly, based on the results of our survey, it looks like Republican men over age 55 are the most likely to vote Governor Newsom out of office. Perhaps even more surprising, a majority of respondents in each age group, except for those aged between 25-40, said they would vote to remove Newsom from office. Also, men were far more likely to remove Newsom from office than women.

Now that this measure has made the ballot, it could be left up to female voters and those under age 55 to keep him in office. California has always been a state to tread its own path. Our data shows a recall election could go either way and that Newsom is not necessarily destined for recall, especially if more Millennials and more women show up to vote.

Invisibly Realtime Research surveys differ from traditional online surveys in that the questions are shown to the user on web pages in place of an ad. Unlike Google Surveys, which block access to content until the questions are answered, Realtime Research surveys are optional, thus ensuring that participants are responding voluntarily.

Acknowledgements
Chad Lang for his help with this project.

Invisibly

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