Invisibly Polling

Invisibly developed innovative polling technology that accurately predicted the national popular vote of the presidential election and produced on average more accurate state level polling results with a smaller error rate than FiveThirtyEight - an aggregator of polls. 

We did it faster, less expensive, and more accurately than established pollsters by leaning into innovation and a scientific approach. Invisibly’s real-time results give the potential for campaigns to leverage meaningful data to make meaningful decisions and turn dials quickly - enabling the ability to actually create an impact in current political races. See our 2020 election results below.

Highlights in the press: Medium, Bloomberg, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Medium

 

*All polls on this page are unweighted

Trump v Biden - Electoral College Projection

 

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Projected Winner

Electoral College Projection 228 310 Joe Biden

*This projection is based off of our poll amongst registered voters which can be found directly below 

Trump v Biden - All States

Date Range

State

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader

Margin of Error


8/05 - 11/01
National 34,675 Registered Voters 49% 51% Biden +2 0.54%
Alabama 554 Registered Voters 59% 41% Trump +18 4.25%
Alaska - - - - - -
Arizona 373 Registered Voters 48% 52% Biden +3 5.18%
Arkansas 359 Registered Voters 60% 40% Trump +19 5.28%
California 2,269 Registered Voters 40% 60% Biden +19 2.10%
Colorado 390 Registered Voters 43% 57% Biden +15 5.06%
Connecticut 345 Registered Voters 40% 60% Biden +19 5.38%
Delaware 122 Registered Voters 44% 56% Biden +11 9.05%
Florida 3,199 Registered Voters 50% 50% Biden +1 1.77%
Georgia 1,211 Registered Voters 50% 50% Trump +0.74 2.87%
Hawaii 63 Registered Voters 30% 70% Biden +40 12.60%
Idaho 118 Registered Voters 65% 35% Trump +31 9.21%
Illinois 982 Registered Voters 46% 54% Biden +7 3.19%
Indiana 640 Registered Voters 51% 49% Trump +3 3.95%
Iowa 246 Registered Voters 56% 44% Trump +12 6.38%
Kansas 196 Registered Voters 60% 40% Trump +19 7.14%
Kentucky 348 Registered Voters 61% 39% Trump +22 5.36%
Louisiana 493 Registered Voters 55% 45% Trump +10 4.50%
Maine 117 Registered Voters 47% 53% Biden +6 9.25%
Maryland 486 Registered Voters 40% 60% Biden +21 4.54%
Massachusetts 718 Registered Voters 41% 59% Biden +18 3.73%
Michigan 867 Registered Voters 49% 51% Biden +1 3.40%
Minnesota 467 Registered Voters 47% 53% Biden +6 4.63%
Mississippi 256 Registered Voters 65% 35% Trump +30 6.25%
Missouri 418 Registered Voters 54% 46% Trump +7 4.89%
Montana 39 Registered Voters 62% 38% Trump +23 16.01%
Nebraska 345 Registered Voters 54% 46% Trump +9 5.38%
Nevada 242 Registered Voters 42% 58% Biden +16 6.43%
New Hampshire 118 Registered Voters 51% 49% Trump +2 9.21%
New Jersey 773 Registered Voters 43% 57% Biden +14 3.60%
New Mexico 110 Registered Voters 52% 48% Trump +4 9.53%
New York 1,033 Registered Voters 45% 55% Biden +10 3.11%
North Carolina 1,064 Registered Voters 51% 49% Trump +2 3.07%
North Dakota 69 Registered Voters 70% 30% Trump +39 12.04%
Ohio 1,359 Registered Voters 58% 42% Trump +15 2.71%
Oklahoma 295 Registered Voters 60% 40% Trump +21 5.82%
Oregon 218 Registered Voters 37% 63% Biden +26 6.77%
Pennsylvania 2,988 Registered Voters 49% 51% Biden +2 1.83%
Rhode Island 140 Registered Voters 36% 64% Biden +27 8.45%
South Carolina 488 Registered Voters 55% 45% Trump +10 4.53%
South Dakota 88 Registered Voters 67% 33% Trump +34 10.66%
Tennessee 589 Registered Voters 56% 44% Trump +11 4.12%
Texas 1,525 Registered Voters 50% 50% Trump +0.07 2.56%
Utah 216 Registered Voters 59% 41% Trump +19 6.80%
Vermont 61 Registered Voters 30% 70% Biden +41 12.80%
Virginia 943 Registered Voters 44% 56% Biden +11 3.26%
Washington 334 Registered Voters 36% 64% Biden +29 5.47%
West Virginia 113 Registered Voters 65% 35% Trump +31 9.41%
Wisconsin 433 Registered Voters 45% 55% Biden +10 4.81%
Wyoming 32 Registered Voters 75% 25% Trump +50 17.68%
District of Columbia 100 Registered Voters 33% 67% Biden +34 10.00%

Date Range

State

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader

Margin of Error


8/05 - 11/01
National 67,372 Adults 47% 53% Biden +6 0.39%
Alabama 1,262 Adults 56% 44% Trump +12 2.81%
Alaska - - - - - -
Arizona 623 Adults 47% 53% Biden +6 4.01%
Arkansas 913 Adults 59% 41% Trump +17 3.31%
California 4,088 Adults 37% 63% Biden +27 1.56%
Colorado 666 Adults 45% 55% Biden +11 3.87%
Connecticut 714 Adults 36% 64% Biden +28 3.74%
Delaware 192 Adults 41% 59% Biden +18 7.22%
Florida 5,245 Adults 47% 53% Biden +5 1.38%
Georgia 2,555 Adults 48% 52% Biden +3 1.98%
Hawaii 117 Adults 30% 70% Biden +40 9.25%
Idaho 254 Adults 65% 35% Trump +29 6.27%
Illinois 1,931 Adults 46% 54% Biden +8 2.28%
Indiana 1,437 Adults 51% 49% Trump +3 2.64%
Iowa 481 Adults 59% 41% Trump +18 4.56%
Kansas 390 Adults 57% 43% Trump +15 5.06%
Kentucky 637 Adults 58% 42% Trump +16 3.96%
Louisiana 1,130 Adults 55% 45% Trump +11 2.97%
Maine 259 Adults 46% 54% Biden +7 6.21%
Maryland 818 Adults 37% 63% Biden +27 3.50%
Massachusetts 1,413 Adults 35% 65% Biden +30 2.66%
Michigan 1,770 Adults 48% 52% Biden +3 2.38%
Minnesota 863 Adults 48% 52% Biden +5 3.40%
Mississippi 581 Adults 58% 42% Trump +15 4.15%
Missouri 907 Adults 56% 44% Trump +12 3.32%
Montana 71 Adults 61% 39% Trump +21 11.87%
Nebraska 948 Adults 54% 46% Trump +9 3.25%
Nevada 466 Adults 39% 61% Biden +22 4.63%
New Hampshire 211 Adults 43% 57% Biden +14 6.88%
New Jersey 1,552 Adults 38% 62% Biden +24 2.54%
New Mexico 173 Adults 51% 49% Trump +3 7.60%
New York 4,019 Adults 41% 59% Biden +18 1.58%
North Carolina 2,314 Adults 46% 54% Biden +7 2.08%
North Dakota 146 Adults 68% 32% Trump +36 8.28%
Ohio 3,047 Adults 56% 44% Trump +12 1.81%
Oklahoma 638 Adults 60% 40% Trump +20 3.96%
Oregon 353 Adults 38% 62% Biden +25 5.32%
Pennsylvania 5,412 Adults 48% 52% Biden +3 1.36%
Rhode Island 249 Adults 32% 68% Biden +37 6.34%
South Carolina 983 Adults 53% 47% Trump +6 3.19%
South Dakota 199 Adults 65% 35% Trump +30 7.09%
Tennessee 1,188 Adults 56% 44% Trump +11 2.90%
Texas 7,896 Adults 46% 54% Biden +9 1.13%
Utah 428 Adults 56% 44% Trump +13 4.83%
Vermont 113 Adults 27% 73% Biden +45 9.41%
Virginia 1,796 Adults 42% 58% Biden +15 2.36%
Washington 582 Adults 37% 63% Biden +25 4.15%
West Virginia 187 Adults 60% 40% Trump +21 7.31%
Wisconsin 935 Adults 50% 50% Biden +0.96 3.27%
Wyoming 68 Adults 66% 34% Trump +32 12.13%
District of Columbia 138 Adults 33% 67% Biden +33 8.51%

Washington Attorney General

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Bob Ferguson Matt Larkin  Lead Margin of Error
10/19 - 11/1
348 Registered Voters 58% 42% Ferguson +16 5.36%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Bob Ferguson

Matt Larkin

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
629 Adults 53% 47% Ferguson +5 3.99% 

Iowa's 4th Congressional District

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Randy Feenstra JD Scholten

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
133 Registered Voters 49% 51% Scholten +2 8.67%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Randy Feenstra

JD Scholten

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
177 Adults 47% 53% Scholten +5 7.52% 

Iowa Senate District 8

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Dan Dawson Steve Gorman

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
76 Registered Voters 37% 63% Gorman +26 11.47%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Dan Dawson Steve Gorman

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
136 Adults 46% 54% Gorman +7 8.57% 

Iowa Senate District 20

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Brad Zaun Rhonda Martin

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
257 Registered Voters 38% 62% Martin +25 6.24%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Brad Zaun Rhonda Martin

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
339 Adults 39% 61% Martin +22 5.43% 

Iowa Senate District 42

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Rich Taylor Jeffrey Reichman

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
71 Registered Voters 56% 44% Taylor +13 11.87%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Rich Taylor Jeffrey Reichman

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
109 Adults 55% 45% Taylor +10 9.58% 

Iowa Senate District 44

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Thomas Courtney  Tim Goodwin

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
118 Registered Voters 51% 49% Courtney +2 9.21%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Thomas Courtney  Tim Goodwin

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
168 Adults 45% 55% Goodwin +11 7.72% 

Oregon Senate District 10

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Denyc Boles Deb Patterson Taylor Rickey

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
96 Registered Voters 38% 50% 13% Patterson +13 10.21%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Denyc Boles Deb Patterson Taylor Rickey

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
225 Adults 36% 41% 23% Patterson +5 6.67%

South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Joe Wilson Adair Ford Boroughs Kathleen Wright

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
137 Registered Voters 45% 52% 3% Boroughs  +7 8.54%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Joe Wilson Adair Ford Boroughs Kathleen Wright

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
195 Adults 46% 44% 10% Wilson +2 7.16%

Missouri Treasurer

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Scott Fitzpatrick Vicki Englund Joseph Civitenni Nick Kasoff

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
126 Registered Voters 44% 37% 10% 8% Fitzpatrick  +7 8.91%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Scott Fitzpatrick Vicki Englund Joseph Civitenni Nick Kasoff

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
522 Adults 32% 25% 19% 24% Fitzpatrick  +7 4.38%

California Senate District 23

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Abigail Medina Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
77 Registered Voters 51% 49% Medina +1 11.40%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Abigail Medina Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh

Lead

Margin of Error

10/19 - 11/1
263 Adults 51% 49% Medina +2 6.17%

California's 50th Congressional District 

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Darrell Issa

Ammar Campa-Najjar

Lead

Margin of Error

10/6 - 11/1
164 Registered Voters 42% 58% Campa-Najjar +16% 7.81%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Darrell Issa

Ammar Campa-Najjar

Lead

Margin of Error

10/6 - 11/1
215 Adults 45% 55% Campa-Najjar +10% 6.82% 

Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Christina Finello

Brian Fitzpatrick

Lead

Margin of Error

10/20 - 10/28
210 Registered Voters 47% 31% Finello +15 6.90%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Christina Finello

Brian Fitzpatrick

Lead

Margin of Error

10/20 - 10/28
529 Adults 33% 24% Finello +9 7.62%

California Proposition 15, Tax on Commercial and Industrial Properties for Education and Local Government Funding Initiative

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

download

260px-California_No_on_Prop_15_2020

Undecided

Margin of Error

10/8 - 11/1
130 Registered Voters 33% 62% 5% 8.77%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

download

260px-California_No_on_Prop_15_2020

Undecided

Margin of Error

10/8 - 11/1
184 Adults 35% 55% 10% 7.37% 

Trump v Biden - National, Blue States, and Swing States 

Date Range

State

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader


10/10 - 10/26
National 20,297 Adults 47% 53% Biden +6
CA 1,280 Adults 37% 63% Biden +24
MA 546 Adults 34% 66% Biden +32
MI 614 Adults 48% 52% Biden +3
OH 1,153 Adults 55% 45% Trump +9
GA 867 Adults 45% 55% Biden +9
PA 902 Adults 52% 48% Trump +5
FL 953 Adults 49% 51% Biden + 2

Date Range

State

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader


10/10 - 10/26
National 10,354 Registered Voters 50% 50% Tied
CA 704 Registered Voters 41% 59% Biden +17
MA 257 Registered Voters 42% 58% Biden +17
MI 307 Registered Voters 52% 48% Trump +5
OH 536 Registered Voters 57% 43% Trump +15
GA 450 Registered Voters 49% 51% Biden +2
PA 503 Registered Voters 54% 46% Trump +8
FL 566 Registered Voters 52% 48% Trump +5

Trump vs Biden - National 

Date Range

Corresponding Events

Sample Size

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

 

Leader

10/14 - 10/21 Week leading up to 10/22 debate 10,846  Adults 47%  53% Biden +5
10/8-10/13 Post VP Debate Week 8,779 Adults 48% 52% Biden +5
10/3 - 10/7 Trump Hospitalized to VP Debate 4,296  Adults 44% 56% Biden +12
9/29 - 10/2 First Debate to Trump Hospitalized 2,717  Adults 47% 53% Biden +7

Date Range

Corresponding Events

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader

10/14 - 10/21 Week leading up to 10/22 debate 5,390  Registered Voters 50% 50% Tied
10/8 - 10/13 Post VP Debate Week 4,240  Registered Voters 50% 50% Trump +1
10/3 - 10/7 Trump Hospitalized to VP Debate 1,833  Registered Voters 46% 54% Biden +8
9/29 - 10/2 First Debate to Trump Hospitalized 1,150 Registered Voters 48% 52% Biden +3

Key   *A=Adults; RV=Registered Voters

Trump v Biden - Florida

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader

10/14 - 10/21 500 Adults 48% 52% Biden +4
10/7 - 10/13 561 Adults 48% 52% Biden +3
9/30-10/7 810 Adults 45% 55% Biden +10
9/23-9/29 460 Adults 46% 54% Biden +7

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

Trump-1

Trump

Biden2

Biden

Leader

10/14 - 10/21 289 Registered Voters 53% 47% Trump +6
10/7 - 10/13 288 Registered Voters 52% 48% Trump +3
9/30-10/7 412 Registered Voters 49% 51% Biden +1
9/23-9/29 186 Registered Voters 48% 52% Biden +3

California Proposition 22, App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

180px-California_Yes_on_22_2020

190px-California_No_on_22_2020

No Preference

10/9 - 10/16
639 Adults 32% 39% 29%

Date Range

Sample Size 

Respondent Type

180px-California_Yes_on_22_2020

190px-California_No_on_22_2020

No Preference

10/9 - 10/16
233 Registered Voters 42% 52% 5%